Tfp, News, and “Sentiments”: the International Transmission of Business Cycles
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Bilateral Linkages and the International Transmission of Business Cycles
Comovement is more than correlation. This paper estimates the contributions of intermediate production linkages, trade patterns, and financial holdings on the directed graph of linkages that describe the international propagation of macroeconomic shocks at the business cycle frequency. The empirical methodology is a novel generalization of the panel vector autoregression (VAR) which nests both ...
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This paper is motivated by three observations about the link between international trade and international business cycle synchronization: (1) a large increase in trade in manufactures over the last 30 years, (2) a larger fraction of trade between core and periphery regions relative to core regions is in the form of production sharing, (3) crosscountry output correlations have increased between...
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T he discussion surrounding the recent deep recession seems to have shifted the focus from currently used business cycle models to the standard Keynesian model (by which we mean the “old Keynesian,” as opposed to the new Keynesian, model). In the Keynesian model, pessimism among consumers and investors about the economy will simultaneously lower aggregate consumption and aggregate investment, a...
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This paper uses a structural, large dimensional factor model to evaluate the role of ‘news’ shocks (shocks with a delayed effect on productivity) in generating the business cycle. We find that (i) existing small-scale VECM models are affected by ‘non-fundamentalness’ and therefore fail to recover the correct shock and impulse response functions; (ii) news shocks have a limited role in explainin...
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In the context of a dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium model, we perform classical maximum-likelihood and Bayesian estimations of the contribution of anticipated shocks to business cycles in the postwar United States. Our theoretical framework is a real-business-cycle model augmented with investment adjustment costs, variable capacity utilization, habit formation in consumption, and prefe...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of the European Economic Association
سال: 2018
ISSN: 1542-4766,1542-4774
DOI: 10.1093/jeea/jvy044